Such alerts are rare, and for good reason: They move us one step closer to nuclear conflict.įinally, there is the frightening possibility that Putin will increase the alert status of his nuclear forces for his own reasons, leaving the Americans no choice but to raise their alert status. This would mean that nuclear weapons and their crews-in some cases, with missiles that are already capable of being launched in 15 or 20 minutes-would heighten their vigilance and readiness to proceed with their missions. Europe’s a crowded continent, and no place for a jumpy trigger finger, but accidents are an unavoidable part of warfare.Īny one of these mishaps could lead the Russians, or the United States, or both, to increase the alert status of their nuclear arsenals. They might suffer a misfire or a targeting error of some kind that puts Russian ordnance on NATO territory. Or they might incorrectly believe that Russian aircraft have been attacked by NATO forces. The Russians might shoot at NATO aircraft after misidentifying them. There are countless opportunities for such errors in the chaos now overtaking Ukraine. And let us not forget that the Russian forces now on the march belong to the same military that in 2014 managed to screw up and shoot down a commercial airliner over Ukraine while claiming that it wasn’t even there in the first place. forces killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranians shot down a commercial airliner-from Ukraine, no less-in their own country. Two years ago, during the crisis between Iran and the United States after U.S. In 2015, Turkey, a NATO nation, shot down a Russian jet that had strayed over the Turkish border. Human beings and their machines make mistakes, sometimes with dire results. War is always a risky and unpredictable affair, even when one side is far stronger than the other. But, again, there is no evidence that Putin intends to take this path.Ī far more likely possibility would be a crisis arising from an accident. If Putin were to decide, for example, that his great crusade to roll back the collapse of the Soviet Union should include recapturing the Baltic states or driving NATO forces from Poland, he would effectively be declaring World War III and throwing the entire world into the abyss. This is the doomsday scenario that NATO was created to prevent, and it would come about only if Putin were seized by an even greater madness than the one driving him to war in Ukraine. All of the Atlantic alliance, including the United States and its nuclear arsenal, would be required to come to the aid of the nations in danger. The least likely occasion for a nuclear crisis would be if Russian forces directly and intentionally threaten NATO territory. Read our ongoing coverage of the Russian invasion in Ukraine Nonetheless, there are multiple paths to a dangerous nuclear confrontation that could embroil Moscow and Washington in a situation neither of them expects or wants. And while Vladimir Putin is, in my view, unhinged and reckless, I see no indication that he is seeking war with the United States or NATO. The Russians are going to defeat the overmatched Ukrainians, and they do not need nuclear weapons to do it. A nuclear crisis is unlikely, but not impossible. Concern about the role of nuclear weapons is perfectly understandable, however, now that a paranoid dictator has led Russia into a major war in the middle of Europe, attacking a country that shares a border with four of America’s NATO allies. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a nuclear crisis. Compare Standard and Premium Digital here.Īny changes made can be done at any time and will become effective at the end of the trial period, allowing you to retain full access for 4 weeks, even if you downgrade or cancel.Sign up for Tom’s newsletter, Peacefield, here. You may also opt to downgrade to Standard Digital, a robust journalistic offering that fulfils many user’s needs. If you’d like to retain your premium access and save 20%, you can opt to pay annually at the end of the trial. If you do nothing, you will be auto-enrolled in our premium digital monthly subscription plan and retain complete access for $69 per month.įor cost savings, you can change your plan at any time online in the “Settings & Account” section. For a full comparison of Standard and Premium Digital, click here.Ĭhange the plan you will roll onto at any time during your trial by visiting the “Settings & Account” section. Premium Digital includes access to our premier business column, Lex, as well as 15 curated newsletters covering key business themes with original, in-depth reporting. Standard Digital includes access to a wealth of global news, analysis and expert opinion. During your trial you will have complete digital access to FT.com with everything in both of our Standard Digital and Premium Digital packages.
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